CAD outlook ahead of September 5th Bank of Canada decision.

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  • The Bank of Canada outlook decision at the September 5 meeting. Chances of a hike are increasing.
  • The chance of a hike in October is now 80% compared to 73% beforehand. The odds of two hikes before year-end are 31% compared to 26% before.
  • Canada Q2 GDP annualized missed at 2.9% vs 3.1% q/q expected.

  • Remain bullish on CAD near term but chances of a move lower USDCAD may have bottomed now.
USDCAD, look higher before the next leg lower resumes.

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